The announcement of a 90-day tariff pause has initiated a high-stakes countdown, with industries and governments now racing against the clock to secure permanent deals before the July 30 deadline.
Critical Dates:
- May 15: First progress reports due to USTR
- June 20: Midterm evaluation deadline
- July 30: Final compliance determinations
Potential Scenarios:
- Deal-Making (30% likelihood):
- EU/U.S. auto pact
- Japan steel quota agreement
- Escalation (45%):
- Tariffs rebound + 5% penalty duties
- New tech export controls
- Extension (25%):
- 60-day add-ons for “good faith” actors
Business Prep Checklist:
- Audit supply chains for at-risk components
- Hedge currency exposure through Q3
- Diversify sourcing beyond China/Vietnam
“Consider this halftime in the trade wars,” warned former USTR official Wendy Cutler. “The second half will be more brutal.”
