China’s 2025 Slowdown Mirrors 2015 – But With Higher Stakes

The current economic deceleration shows eerie parallels to China’s 2015 downturn, but with three critical differences:

1. Debt Load: Corporate + government debt now 300% GDP vs 200% then
2. Demographics: Working-age population shrinking 0.5% annually
3. Tech War: $120B in lost semiconductor revenue

“2015 was cyclical – this is structural,” warned former IMF China chief Eswar Prasad.

Similarities include:
✓ Property market collapse
✓ Capital flight pressures
✓ Stimulus dependency

But 2025’s unique risks:
→ U.S. containment policies biting deeper
→ No property market rebound possible
→ Innovation engine slowing