As Washington and Hanoi reached agreement, the European Union is taking careful note. EU diplomats are debating whether to seek similarly tailored access or prepare for reciprocal U.S. tariffs.
According to OCBC economist Lavanya Venkateswaran, Vietnam’s willingness to negotiate—and strong trade dependency—enabled it to secure the deal. But EU–U.S. relations are more complicated, involving digital services, tech regulation, agricultural access—and, increasingly, U.S. threats of tariffs up to 50%.
Indian and ASEAN counterparts are watching closely, too. Natixis economist Trinh Nguyen suggests that, while India may negotiate a similar escape clause, their agricultural sensitivities could complicate talks—especially with domestic backlash.
Policy watchers expect multiple rough framework agreements to follow in coming weeks, especially as the U.S. targets mutual concessions without full-scale treaty negotiations. Europe might win a 10% rate on select sectors—but that might require separate domestic legislation to uphold.
In sum, the Vietnam model reflects a turning point: rapid bilateral deals with conditional access, stronger enforcement based on supply chain structure, and growing geopolitical pressure influencing trade architecture.
