The Hydrogen Hype Cycle: Separating Promise From Reality

Beyond the breathless headlines, significant obstacles threaten to derail the hydrogen revolution – from subterranean wildfires to a looming “hydrogen bubble” in venture funding.

Overlooked Risks:

• Subsurface Combustion:

  • Oklahoma well fire burned for 17 days

  • Hydrogen’s wide flammability range (4-75% vs methane’s 5-15%)

• Infrastructure Gaps:

  • Only 1,200 miles of H₂-ready pipelines globally

  • Cargo ships lack containment for liquid H₂ (-253°C)

• Economic Realities:

  • 73% of hydrogen startups lack viable path to profit (McKinsey)

  • “Hydrogen Valley” projects missing targets by 32-68%

Scientist Warnings:
“Natural hydrogen isn’t a silver bullet,” cautions Columbia’s Dr. Elena Krieger. “At best, it meets 12% of global energy needs by 2050 – if we solve the storage crisis.”

Investor Backlash:
Short interest in hydrogen ETFs surged 140% as skeptics compare the boom to:

• 2000s hydrogen car hype

• 2010s solar overcapacity

• 2020s SPAC bubble