The 90-Day Clock Starts: What Comes Next in the Trade Wars?

The announcement of a 90-day tariff pause has initiated a high-stakes countdown, with industries and governments now racing against the clock to secure permanent deals before the July 30 deadline.

Critical Dates:

• May 15: First progress reports due to USTR
• June 20: Midterm evaluation deadline
• July 30: Final compliance determinations

Potential Scenarios:

1. Deal-Making (30% likelihood):
   • EU/U.S. auto pact
   • Japan steel quota agreement
2. Escalation (45%):
   • Tariffs rebound + 5% penalty duties
   • New tech export controls
3. Extension (25%):
   • 60-day add-ons for “good faith” actors

Business Prep Checklist:

• Audit supply chains for at-risk components
• Hedge currency exposure through Q3
• Diversify sourcing beyond China/Vietnam

“Consider this halftime in the trade wars,” warned former USTR official Wendy Cutler. “The second half will be more brutal.”